Thread: Elections 538
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Old 11-07-2012, 07:30 AM   #1461
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I believe its only appropriate to post on this thread tonight.

My read of the presidential race in Iowa and beyond was more than off. In Iowa Obama dominated in eastern Iowa, which isn't out of character, but its an area that Romney has/had been strong in for quite some time. The most shocking result was that Obama got 60% of the vote in Scott County. That's an ass kicking. He also increased his margin in Polk County which shocked me.

Not to make excuses, but the one thing that may have clouded by opinion of Iowa was the two western Iowa congressional races. Tom Latham defeated another sitting member of congress (Boswell) by 8 points. Over 20,000 people who voted for Obama in Polk County also pulled the lever for Latham.

Steve King, who someone on here said had nothing going on, defeated Christie Vilsack, the wife of a former Iowa Governor and current US Sec of Ag Tom Vilsack, got her ass kicked. King won by 8 points as well.

There is nothing for me to hang my hat on, but I did predict that Republicans would lose seats in the Iowa House. Nailed it actually, which sucks. Iowa Republicans had a chance to win the state senate but two incumbents going down put an end to that.

Anyway, I'm here to eat my crow. Nate Silver is a GOD.

Hoover
You saw with your heart, not with your head. Romney lost by 6 points. I didnt see any polls saying Obama would win by 6 points. Why did that happen?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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