Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Shields FIP is about a 1/2 run lower in 2011 and 2012 than his career numbers, and his strikeout (and walk) rates have ticked up a bit. So he's probably placing more emphasis on chasing strikeouts than previously. And even over that time frame, he's averaged about 3.5 WAR a year.
Still below the average return you'd gain simply by benching Jeff Francoeur's -2.7 WAR total and getting even an average season from Wil Myers.
It just comes down to the Rays and Royals being a bad match for Shields. Myers is the only impact bat KC has that's CLOSE to MLB right now, and that's what the Rays are demanding. Hopefully, Dayton Moore is smart enough to stay away from it...
I like Shields and think he'd be a nice addition to KC. But the value just isn't there. Of course, these are all terms that probably would make Dayton and Bob Dutton and Lee Judge have a nice chat, chuckle and laugh about "newfangled nerds and their slide rules."
You have to take into consideration the division he did that in as well.