Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I just don't see any way the $70 million/40 man mark is believable as the break even point.
$20 million a year for local TV rights (even though this is a shitty amount)
$25 million a year from current national TV rights
$70 million (low estimate) from revenue sharing. High estimate is $92 million.
I realize it costs a lot of money to run the stadium and pay for the support systems in the minors and latin america, etc.
But they're also selling 1.7 million tickets a year, at an average cost of over $30/ticket. That's an additional $50 million-plus.
The figures just don't make sense.
So screw David Glass.
As for next year, add $25 million to the list above for national TV, and you're looking at a starting revenue (not including advertising, etc) of $190 million.
No reason NOT to take the payroll much, much higher in that case.
Also, coming off the books:
Francoeur: 7.5 million
Chen: 4.5 million
Santana: 12 million
Hochevar: 4.5 million
Getz: 1 million (hopefully, Colon is ready by then to at least be the guy)
So that's about $30 million coming off the books, or a little under 1/2 the payroll.
Guys due increases:
Alex Gordon ($1 million)
Billy Butler (no increase)
Alcides Escobar (no increase)
Jeremy Guthrie ($6 million)
Sal Perez ($500k)
Now, they're going to have some guys qualify for arbitration (Crow, Duffy, Paulino, Hosmer, Holland, possibly Moustakas, Cain), but you're not looking at any other really, really sizable increases. Unless Hosmer goes BEAST MODE and is a super 2.
You're looking at a net gain of AT LEAST $10-15 million on the guys that are walking, because they're almost all going to be replaced by cheap, internal options (Myers in RF, Colon at 2B, Odorizzi or Ventura in SP, Duffy at SP, etc.).
My point: The Royals CERTAINLY have the payroll flexibility to do something splashy, like Anibal Sanchez, go light on year 1, and backload the difference into the 2014 season.
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