Originally Posted by SNR
This does not match up if you agree with this statement:
Ah, I gotcha. Let me clarify.
I believe that how the population votes in midterms is distinctly different and rarely indicative of how it will vote in Presidential years. I think Presidential election years are more indicative of where the country is ideologically, since that's when the most people are paying attention and the most people turn out. This is different in midterm years, where the bases are just running get out the vote operations, and base enthusiasm is really the key determiner.
That doesn't mean midterms don't matter, politically. They clearly do -- the 2014 midterms will spook enough Republicans to tack to hard right policy endorsements to protect their right flanks, which will wound the party for the Presidential election year. We just saw this happen from 2010 to 2012.