Jeff Passan talks us down off the ledge:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb--ro...092108961.html
(Excerpts)
Desperate? Hell yeah this was a desperate trade. More than a quarter-century of irrelevance tends to foster desperation. The awful feeling of Tommy John surgeries piling up tends to hasten desperation. The knowledge that almost no team in baseball can match the Royals' youth – catcher Salvador Perez, first baseman Eric Hosmer, shortstop Alcides Escobar, third baseman Mike Moustakas, left fielder Alex Gordon, center fielder Lorenzo Cain and DH Billy Butler – and that they were primed to piss away another year of it to mediocre starting pitching tends to activate desperation.
Across the game Sunday night, they dropped LOLs in text messages about the Royals doing it again – about one of the teams that must rely on young, controllable talent giving away Myers, pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery and power-hitting Patrick Leonard for two years of Shields and up to five of Wade Davis, who they'll try to return to the rotation after a breakout year in the bullpen. They laughed because in a straightforward analysis of talent, cost and control, this was not a good trade for the Royals.
They failed to recognize it was a necessary trade. Not necessary because Moore is trying to save his job – any GM who cultivates the farm system Moore has and locks in Perez, Escobar, Gordon and Butler to superb contracts is doing something right – but because he understood that without better pitching, the Royals weren't winning the American League Central, let alone a World Series. And with owner David Glass handcuffing the team's budget and making a run at Anibal Sanchez an impossibility, Moore's options were to dip into a deep cache of young talent and trade for a starter or jam a lesser free agent into an opening day role.
While Shields is a known quantity – six straight seasons of 200-plus innings, a strikeout rate that approached one per inning last year and battle scars of the AL East to show for it – there is little allure in the expected. The fetishization of prospects is a baseball-wide malady, and it's why sentiment skewed decidedly in the Rays' favor. Granted, it should – Myers has the sort of talent that wins awards, Odorizzi looks like a mid-rotation starter, Montgomery is a high-ceiling left-hander and Leonard comes with the one tool, power, that everybody wants – but not nearly to the degree it did.
There's a reason Tampa Bay turned down Myers for Shields straight up. There's a reason Oakland turned down Myers for Brett Anderson straight up. Despite the scouting reports that glow and the awards he won this year, the 22-year-old Myers remains a risk. He is a safer one than most – his .314/.387/.600 line with 37 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season portends stardom – but any number of players have aced the minor leagues only to lag behind early in their major league careers.
Gordon was Myers six years ago, and it took him four seasons to establish himself. Hosmer and Moustakas were Myers two years ago, and both still have plenty of flaws heading into their third seasons. Scouts agree that Myers has far too much swing-and-miss in his game and that strikeouts could hinder his productivity, especially early in his career. Some don't think Myers' power will translate to the major leagues, either, though that opinion isn't altogether common.
Perhaps the most important point is why the Rays and A's wouldn't deal two years of Shields or three years of Anderson for Myers' entire pre-free agency career: He's a right fielder, and corner outfielders, while not a dime a dozen – see: Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, Jeff Francoeur and the misery they've unleashed upon Kansas City – are not exactly bank-breaking sorts, either. Whether it's Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel or Ryan Ludwick, it's easy to find someone cheap who can hit in a corner-outfield spot. Unless Myers develops into a Gold Glove-caliber fielder – no scouts expect that – he needs to hit like Ryan Braun to develop into a star .And there are but five players in baseball with Braun's bat.
When Moore talks with his amateur scouts, he tells them to target four things: center fielders, shortstops, catchers and starting pitchers. He recognizes and appreciates positional value, and that was the genesis of this deal. Starting pitching of Shields' caliber on the free-agent market takes five years and at least $15 million a season, the sort of contract that would suck up 20 percent of the Royals' budget and leave them a ligament tear away from disaster. At around $22 million over the next two seasons, Shields, who will be 31 and 32 during those years, represents a bargain.