Originally Posted by Exoter175
I'm on Bray's nuts right now, I like his upside quite a bit, but I haven't seen enough game film to be sold on the floor of his downside in terms of decision making as it transitions to the NFL level.
Ah, we have found the problem.
The floor absolutely does not matter for a potential staring QB. Zero. Less than zero. If he isn't a franchise QB, or on the arc to become one, then you need to be moving on to the next guy. It is worse to have the 18th best QB in the league than the 30th best. Why? Because you keep hoping the 18th best guy will get you there, but unless you have an elite once in decade defense, he never ever will. But you keep avoiding the decision to move on because he is just good enough to tease you.
The metric on which to draft is the %chance of becoming a franchise QB. If you don't have a franchise QB and you can draft a guy that is above 30% chance of becoming franchise, you pull the trigger with your first pick. Because if you don't have a franchise QB, your number 1 priority of your franchise is to get one. You keep rolling the dice until you hit.
I don't think Bray has the maturity to accept the coaching that he would need to become a franchise QB, but that is just a very knee jerk impression. I'd need to collect more data.