Originally Posted by keg in kc
To me, it comes down to this: there's no guarantee that a QB picked at #1 will be a franchise player. The only guarantee is that you won't ever draft a franchise QB if you don't actually, you know, ever try to draft one.
To me it comes down to this:
A guy picked at #1 carries a high overall grade, even if he's a reach. NOBODY is going to draft a guy with a 2nd or 3rd round grade 1st overall.
And 1st round QBs have an EXPONENTIALLY higher success rate in the NFL vs. QBs drafted anywhere else.
It's all about rolling the dice. Are you betting on snake eyes or are you betting on every number 3 through 11.