Quote:
Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin
What's a reasonable time frame for (starting at the draft) for a pitching prospect to become a major league starter, 3-4 full seasons?
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It varies.
First factor is whether it's a college kid or a high school kid. High school kids generally take at least 3-4 years. Some elite college kids can take as little as a few months in the minors.
Second factor is polish. How refined are their mechanics? Does work need to be done to fix those? What is their pitch arsenal like?
Third factor is how much natural ability they have. If you have one plus-plus pitch, one average pitch, and one that's developing to average, you can move really quickly. If it's more of an all-around guy, or a guy who has upside with pitches but hasn't reached it yet, it takes longer.
I'll use Tim Lincecum, Kyle Zimmer, Clayton Kershaw, and Dylan Bundy as examples.
Lincecum was a college kid who had highly refined mechanics, a dominant fastball, and a curve and change that projected to plus pitches with some work and consistency (And were MLB-average when he was drafted). He moved incredibly quickly (signed late in 2006, then made a few starts in AAA in 2007 before being promoted to the majors) because of how dominant his fastball was and how well his other pitches worked off of that FB. In his first few years in the show, the FB covered his development time as he threw the CB more consistently for strikes, making it a plus pitch, and further developed his movement and control on the change, making it a plus pitch.
Zimmer is a college kid who is more raw than Lincecum. He's fairly new to pitching, and he needs more refinement. The mechanics look good, but he needs to gain experience to get the most out of his stuff. He also has a plus fastball at this time rather than a plus-plus, and his curve and change still need to develop. He needs to get the curve and change both to MLB average, and that's going to take a bit of time. Because of that, Zimmer's developmental time looks more like 2-2.5 years than the six months it takes a guy like Lincecum.
Kershaw and Bundy are examples of HS kids who moved incredibly quickly. Kershaw is more of an example of overpowering stuff (LHP pumping 95 with a solid curve and change will play at age 20, 30 or even 40), while Bundy is a combination of a dominant fastball and great mechanics/feel (as well as secondary offerings that are already MLB average with upside).