Dane, your discussion of Manning and how he was viewed is not how it was.
There were a number of questions, most notably, whether he had the requsite arm strength to make all the throwzs because he had a tendency to float the deep outs at Tennesee, and whether he had potential to grow or had he reached his ceiling?.
Bill Polian has talked about he and his scouts struggled with those questins, and the fact that Leaf had superior physical skills and measureables made the decision a last minute one when the draft rolled around.
Plunket and Elway were as close to sure things at QB that have been drafted in the last 40 years prior to Luck.
One was a disappointment.