Originally Posted by O.city
But yes, it has to be the right QB, of course. It's been shown that the first round is the best place or the most favorable place to get the right QB
But this is a selection bias. We're selectively ignoring contrary examples.
Sure, there's been a significant run of 1st round QBs winning super bowls over the last decade, no one disputes that. But if you look at who they were - Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, etc. - nobody had doubts that those guys were first round picks. These were consensus top of the first round, trade future first round picks for, kind of guys. There was never any doubt about their talent. Even Joe Flacco, who it seems like I remember slipped a bit, was never going to get out of the first, and he'd be a first any year.
We don't have that this year. We have a group of guys who are probably 2nd round talent most years, who will have their value falsely inflated by the current dynamics of the league and the desperation of our team.
We shouldn't wash out the true data - we shouldn't build a stereotype around any QB in the first round when (a) most of them do not turn out, even in the first round and (b) there is a VERY significant drop off in number of super bowls won by QBs drafted in the first the last ten years, if you drop out the really exceptional examples - which clearly there are none of available to us this year.