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Old 02-19-2013, 08:03 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HotCarl View Post
Fair enough, for the sake of argument let's say Flacco is a contrary example. You'd also have Brees you could add to this group.

If we peel off those which are significantly special examples like Peyton and Eli to try to normalize things, I don't think we see the correlation we typically hear about. Brady was a low round pick, but we can't really count that as normalized either, because he was essentially a winning lottery ticket.

I agree that it's a bit of an argument from silence. The Brady super bowls cloud the numbers for the last 10 or 15 years, and trying to normalize beyond the super-elite super-minority clouds it further.

Here are all the 1st round QBs since 2000.

Chad Pennington
Michael Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman ^
Eli Manning *
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger *
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers *
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco *
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden


Apologies if I missed anything.

There we have 30-some guys, and only 4 have won Super Bowls in the 12 contested since then.

So the success rate of these guys, almost all of whom were generally accepted
first round picks, is about 1 in 10.

Other than a Manning, we have only Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Rodgers among 1st rounders winning Super Bowls. And those guys were all middle-late first, weren't they?

Outside of a few no-brainer choices, the picture isn't very clear. That's all I am pointing out.
Ironic because the top Qb's this year are hailed as middle late first round grades.


But yes, there are alot of them and the success rate is 1 and 10. But look at what it is for 2-UDFA. It's astronomically lower.
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