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Old 02-19-2013, 08:14 PM   #62
HotCarl HotCarl is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Miami, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city View Post
You seem to have this idea that a guy has to be drafted where he is slotted or graded.
It's not generally a good idea to overpay for things.

If you look at the well-traveled draft value chart, the #1 overall is worth 3,000, and #33 is worth about one sixth of that. So, if you take someone whose true value in most years is as the first pick of round 2, you're paying 6 times sticker, in a way.

You also have to look at opportunity cost. You could have, instead of vaporizing 2,500 points in that system, collected something up to two middle of the first round picks. #15 and #16 would be of a similar score to #1.

What the team lining up in week 1 looks like is all that matters of course, but I think people see taking a late first guy at #1 overall as no big deal because he's a QB. That's a very expensive proposition.

It's not really any different than if we traded two first round picks from our usual middle draft position and took a late first guy. If it works out, maybe you look like a genius, but you should be doing far, far better for your money 9 times out of 10
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