Originally Posted by cosmo20002
Talk to the CBO. I'm not making up anything.
"January U.S. receipts were up about $9 billion, or 4 percent from a year earlier, largely because of higher withholdings of individual income and payroll taxes, CBO said."
So here's the real story and if you want to read it from the CBO do so....
Actual receipts were up ~36Billion for but the majority of that is going to be one time expenses. You are right $9 billion of the $36 billion is due to payroll taxes(note this likely is mostly on the low income earners). Total withheld receipts are up $13Billion of which the $9 million of payroll tax makes up most about $4billion *might* be attributed to the new tax rates but we'll see.
That leaves ~$23Billion surplus....of that the biggest chunk ~$13billion is due to non-withheld taxes i.e. the vast majority will be due to estimated taxes for 2012). Most if not all of that will be from people cashing in capital gains by the end of 2012 because if you have long term capital gains you're smart to take them because it will save you ~9% in taxes if you did so by the end of 2012. You are unlikely to see that surplus return, in fact you should expect a drop in revenue next year. Why? Because with investment income you can generally time your rates. Why take them now when taxes are high instead wait until the taxes rates will get lower again. SO likely $13+Billion of revenue is a one time bonus of people taking expiring taxes.
$10 billion in surplus left. Of that $6 billion is purely an accounting gimmick. Tax refunds were $6 billion lower for January because they delayed processing refunds until Jan 30th.
$4 billion left is hard to predict where it came from but I'm guessing from corp taxes.
So of the 36billion surplus 19Billion is accounting gimmick/one time expenses. What was a 2 billion deficit for January probably should have been a $20 billion. But we'll see taxes are a funny thing raise them and receipts go up before the taxes go into effect but often go down when they go into effect.