The selection committee almost always underseeds Missouri. We deserved to get bounced last year, but their resume was better than #8 overall. They deserved a 2 seed in 2009 and played like it as well.
Whatever Lunardi or the Bracketology guys say, I'd usually downgrade it by one to factor in the selection committee.
A great shot is when you pull it off. A smart shot is when you don't have the guts to try.