[duncan_idaho]

As for the Royals... a 20-game jump would be a large surprise. I think my expectations as of Day 1 break in around 84-85 wins. Which is probably enough to keep them in the wild card race all season.

If they don't make the playoffs in 2013 or 2014, the trade is a failure.

Reasons for optimism:

1) Better than their record a year ago. The Royals were unlucky, winning about 4-5 games fewer than their pythag suggested was normal.

2) Salvador Perez for 120 games as C and likely 15-20 as DH, rather than 75.

3) Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas improvement/rebound potential. The huge upside is still there for both. Early reports are good, and they're focused on things they should be - what pitches they're taking, what pitches they're driving, etc.

4) Stronger overall pitching staff. It's not likely to all work out as sunshine and roses. If it does, the Royals will challenge the Tigers legitimately. But it's still going to be a massive improvement, even if Davis is just league average, Santana is only OK, and Guthrie and Shields take small steps back from their performances last year.

(Of course, it could go south. Guthrie could pitch an entire season like he did in Colorado, Santana could be just as bad, Davis could get hurt, and Shields could do what he did in 2010)

5) Strengths are still strengths. The bullpen is still young, strong, and stacked with hard-throwing, strikeout artists. The defense is still young, and good (And could be much improved with Perez and Cain healthy).