oh back to topic.
I expect Geno Smith (or any QB) to help win a respectable amount of games in year 1.
Show great improvement with the team in year 2.
Playoff win by year 3.
Deeper Playoff run in year 4.
Super Bowl in year 5.
If this doesn't look even close to happening, then you draft the next best QB prospect and try again until you get it right.