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Old 03-23-2013, 08:42 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...
People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively believe our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.
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