View Single Post
Old 03-23-2013, 10:46 AM   #86
MTG#10 MTG#10 is online now
EAD
 
MTG#10's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Springfield
Casino cash: $1014630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
Rape
Posts: 5,717
MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.MTG#10 has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote