Thread: Football Expectations and Alex Smith
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Old 03-23-2013, 03:53 PM   #19
keg in kc keg in kc is offline
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Just to give mine, I expect that in 2013 Alex will play 14-15 games, complete around 64% of his passes for a bit over 3,000 yards, throw maybe 17-18 TDs against 9-10 INTs. I expect that we'll start the year trying to be pass-happy with Alex and it won't work (hence the 9-10 picks). I expect a trajectory much like when we "discovered" Priest Holmes in 2001 and began to run the offense through him as the season progressed (although I do think Trent Green was a better QB than Alex will be). Things will settle down and I expect that Jamaal Charles will have a career best in total yardage, and the Chiefs will be top 10 in rushing, while bottom 10 in passing. I expect Dwayne Bowe to be underutilized, with most of the focus on short passing to backs and slot receivers, although he'll still manage his requisite 800-1000 yards despite that. I think Donnie Avery may have a second consecutive career year, again pushing 800 yards. I expect that we'll all see Reid try to incorporate McCluster into the offense, and it still won't work. End result is 7-8 wins, with a lot of losses under 7 points (the defense is going to be pretty good), so close but not quite there for a wild card. I expect Alex Smith to get his extension after this season (if he doesn't get it before that).

Then in 2014 I expect Alex Smith to have what will be, for him, a career year. 65% passing for 3500 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT. Jamaal Charles (or a backup, he may be run into the ground by season's end) will post another career year. The passing offense's rank will rise into middle-of-the-league, while the rushing offense will remain top-5. The defense will be a bit better, giving us some victories in close games we lost in 2013. The team will win 9-10 games and make the playoffs, where they'll lose a low scoring wild card game to a team they should beat (or may have beaten during the season).

'15-'17 will be more of the same, falling somewhere between 7-9 and 11-5 every year, 3000-3500 yards annually for Alex, probably not much more than 20 TDs in any season. We'll be back to full martyball, basically, with everything centering around defense and running game, although that's obviously counter to Andy Reid's career trends. I think it's possible we win a playoff game or two. I don't think we'll be a super bowl contender, although there have been fluky wins by teams in the past, so anything's possible.
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