After reading this I feel pretty good.
1. Pace: UNC plays the 18th-fastest pace nationally, and KU is a team that plays much better offensively when it can get into a running game. UNC coach Roy Williams said Saturday his team wasn't going to change its style against KU, which means the Tar Heels are likely to play a high-possession game against a better team.
2. James Michael McAdoo: A lot of people have been concerned that the four-guard lineup could give KU's defense problems, but there is one big difference between UNC's small lineup and Iowa State's: UNC has an anchor in the middle in McAdoo. The sophomore has only shot two threes all year, and while he has shot a lot of jumpers (unsuccessfully), his range won't be enough to take KU center Jeff Withey away from the bucket. Much like Kansas State forwards Thomas Gipson or Jordan Henriquez, McAdoo should allow KU to "anchor" Withey in the lane defensively, which is where he is at his best blocking shots and rotating as a help defender.
UNC will have stretch 4s in Bullock and Hairston, but KU has a better lineup to counter that this year compared to last. A season ago, a four-guard look was tough because KU had two true post players in Thomas Robinson and Withey. Robinson is gone now, and Kevin Young is one of KU's best players at closing out on three-point shooters.
3. UNC's struggles against big teams: Since going to the four-guard lineup, North Carolina's worst games have come against bigger teams in Duke and Miami. As mentioned above, UNC was dominated on the glass in those games, and KU also should have success scoring if it's able to get the ball inside to allow Withey, Young and Perry Ellis to go after undersized defenders.
The one wildcard is UNC's three-point shooting, but barring a Wichita State-like effort there, I see KU — in front of a fired-up crowd — winning this one going away.