Quote:
Originally Posted by Pestilence
Here is my main problem with this offseason. A good majority of the posters who are "Geno fanatics" are legitimately saying that there is about a 5% chance that we draft him. The people who are against Geno are saying that there is a 0% chance that we draft him. Who is more realistic?
No one knows shit.
But I love how Geno is at 2% and Joeckel is at 50%. FWIW.....every ****ing player in this draft is at 50% because no one knows shit.
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That's the unrealistic simplifying assumption that the pro-Geno guys make precisely because they don't know shit.* The important part of that sentence that people around here tend to ignore is the "unrealistic" part. By making that simplifying assumption, as baseless as it is, you get to move on to the positional value argument and at that point the QB always wins.
But it's not true that no one knows shit. The vast majority of people who do this for a living agree that Luke Joeckel rates above Geno Smith on a BPA scale. Even the GMs who are telling Mel Kiper that Geno Smith will be drafted in the top 10 think of him as more of a 20-32 ranked player, for example. But almost everyone agrees that Luke Joeckel is a top 5 player (conservatively speaking) on a BPA list.
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* BTW, I'd be the first to admit that I don't know shit either, but I don't discount all of the information from draft experts that we have available to us just because I don't like what they're saying. It's overwhelming.