Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightfyre
I think you need to re-evaluate your assessment of elite minor league hitting. Also, Butler is two years younger than Craig and has been performing at the major league level since 2007. So don't dismiss five years of production like it is meaningless.
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I'm not. But at some point, sample sizes equalize when discussing future performance. If Craig has another year like he did last year, you're looking at 2.5 years of performance right on par with the best production of Butler's career (and let's not act like it was all win and roses with Billy, a lot of you guys were ready to run him out of town until last season). Personally, I'm comfortable saying that Craig will duplicate that performance, though he does have to make a slight adjustment right now; he's not driving the ball terribly well.
But if he makes that adjustment and gets you to 1000+ ABs at a very high level, isn't it fair to say that Craig is what he is and that player is a hitter that is very very similar to Butler? And while Butler
is younger, he's also a fat guy and fat guys don't always age terribly well. Craigs a much better athlete.
Butler wasn't a better hitter than Craig in 2012. He had more ABs by virtue of not being able to play defense and therefore avoided the injury that Craig had, but when both guys were in the lineup, they were extremely similar hitters - surely you'll admit that.
And ultimately, I'll admit that I"m probably jumping the gun a bit and taking his 2013 performance for granted. I've seen Craig play under the brightest lights imaginable and excel. I've seen him hit a bomb in game 7 of the World Series and then turn around 2 innings later, reach over the wall and bring back a HR of his own. I've seen him in spring training in person and seen him develop as a hitter. I'm absolutely comfortable establishing his baseline as his 2012 performance because the guy is fearless and he's flat talented.
And if he reproduces at his 2012 level, I don't see how you can still claim that Billy Butler's a significantly more valuable property unless Butler takes a major step forward as well.