Typically teams whose only activity in free agency consists of cutting guys and offloading contracts don't do very well at all. Like, they're terribad. Legit terribad.
Also, again typically, teams who are viewed as having a halfway decent draft simply because they were able to make a selection in the first round aren't set up for success.
In order for this thing to be close, you have to see pretty much zero improvement in the Chiefs. Both in the roster and coaching.
The Raiders are going to be 2012 Chiefs bad this year.