Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan
Not what I'm saying at all.
Jim Johnson 2012- 51 for 54 in saves 2013- 21 for 25 in saves
Greg Holland 2012- 16 for 20 in saves 2013- 12 for 14 in saves
Give Holland 54 chances to close a game do you really think he ends up with 51 saves ?
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Johnson had a great season last year, but it's hard to look at it and not see some fluke nature present. It's similar to Greg Holland's 2011, when only 6 percent of inherited runners scored, a once-in-a-decade type fluke.
One thing that should be noted: Holland is 28/31 in save opportunities as the closer. His figures last year include three blown saves when he was the setup man (all of which involved inherited runners, something a closer almost never has to worry about).
At that conversion rate, he'd save 49 games (OK, 48.8) if given 54 opportunities. Very small difference from Johnson (3 percent).
Also, it's not like Johnson is continuing to convert at that 94 percent close rate he did a season ago. If he gets to the end of the year and is over 50 saves with another 90+ percent close rate, I'll give him props. But I'd bet on his conversion rate staying in the low 80s, like it is now. Which is nothign to be ashamed of but nothing really special either.