Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
Now that it appears that I am done in FA, here was my strategy in bidding 300 clams for Bowener. I looked at the total money available to all the teams in FA and the current bids on all players at that time. Even assuming that only 70% would be spent, the market was still under financed by a factor of 3. In other words there was a lot of cash out there chasing limited talent. I also projected that prices on players would go way up once people started realizing that the talent pool was shrinking. That situation is now manifest in league 1 where my $72 won't buy a 2nd tier starting guard.
I was also facing a situation where I really wanted one of the top 3 CBs, and there were more than 3 teams chasing those three players. Patty had just out bid me on Chris Harris Jr. and I could see a situation where those corners would slowly be bid up in value until I could no longer afford one of them. Therefore I vowed to get my corner in the next 3 day bidding period thereby avoiding bidding wars. It appeared that Bowener had dropped to the third most desirable CB. I liked him over Harris, since the Broncos might play him at nickle all year. Bidding up Sherman was likely draw counter bids. So Bowener became my guy. I doubled his bid value making him the highest bid CB on the board. Now, people bidding for a CB would be targeting Sherman and Harris instead of my guy. I felt pretty good that the three day clock would expire before the market caught up with him again.
It turns out that the league 2 market didn't get that aggressive during my 3 day window, and as a result I overbid him a bit -- it looks like a bid of 250 or even less would have been enough. But if you look at the late market in league 2, people are bidding at or near 200 for mediocre FS, LT, and RT. So relative to the late market, I think I got value. I got my man and was able to still address most of the other key needs I had going into FA. I would have liked to get a value player at guard, and I think Phillip Wheeler is an interesting luxury player due to his ability to brink heat from the OLB position. A more accurate bid on Bowener would have allowed me to get my guard, but Wheeler was out of my reach regardless. So overall I'm very pleased with my FA acquisitions in league 2. I have a dynasty roster that should allow me to compete for a number of years.
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If Harris is playing nickle, then he's moving there while playing on the outside in base. He played almost twice as many snaps as the 3rd CB in Denver in 2012. He played more snaps than Browner did, in fact. Add to that the fact that he's better than Browner and 5 years younger.
I like your idea of a sudden large bid to avoid the narrowing market, I just question the target.