Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Throwing the ball downfield more pretty much inevitably leads to more turnovers, unless you're throwing the ball right on the boundary (and making it an even lower percentage pass). Hard to argue with that.
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Turnovers should go up, but so will the flashy production that the fantasy footballers seem to cherish. Just so long as the ratio stays positive as smart, situational football dictates. No one seems to much mind when Brees throws multiple INTs, because his good production generally outweighs the bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Especially when all the talk is about getting Smith to be more aggressive and throw into tighter windows. He's avoided turnovers the past two years because he: 1) Takes a lot of sacks; 2) Scrambles for short gains a lot; 3) Checks down a lot; 4) Only throws to receivers who have clear separation (especially downfield - talk to Niners fans that don't love him so much they follow him to other boards about that).
If he starts throwing more passes downfield to receivers who aren't COMPLETELY (as in 2+ strides) wide open, two things will happen: 1) More big plays (assuming he has the arm strength and accuracy necessary); 2) More turnovers.
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None of what you are saying here is horribly inaccurate. People that are trying to be open minded need to appreciate that Alex became this way (lacking trust) as a necessity of survival. First, look at the cautious-minded coaches instructing him. Then, look back (if you are able) at the receivers running the routes and making the catch efforts. You will be underwhelmed. I agree that a QB needs to trust his targets... but there is no doubt that SF's receivers have done very little to earn that trust. Not all the time.. but many times, and more so in the distant past.. which happens to be when Alex was mostly developing.
Aside from a very rare circus catch, our receivers have never been particularly good at catching the ball away from their bodies or in tight coverage. Many passes on target have been bobbled for INTs or dropped. VD and Crabtree were surprisingly bad, but improved this in recent times due to hard work. Aside from them, there was no one special to really trust. You have to keep in mind when comparing to other good teams.. the 49ers were so often (all) learning a new scheme being implemented on the fly. If receivers are unsure of their routes? That can make a QB pretty damn bad/unsure of where the ball can end up.. so he may have to wait an extra split-second to see if his guys are doing what the play requires.
I can only pray that Bowe and a few others earn that trust quickly.. and that Reid can quickly ease Alex into giving them that trust and then see if it is sustainable.