Originally Posted by Rain Man
There are some theoretical studies out there that say it's always a bad idea to punt, and the previous owner wanted to test that theory. It didn't seem to work very well, so I'm really curious now whether the theory works in real life or if it's got some flaw (or if our simulation can't account for what makes the theory true).
I think it's that coaches punt in many different situations when going for it is the better statistical option - not all. I don't think any model would say it's better to go for 4th and 99 on your own 1 over punting. But punting on 4th and 2 from midfield is probably a negative proposition compared to going for it. I think Haley subscribed to this thinking as well in all reality - thus his propensity to gamble on 4th down more often.