Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Their monte carlo simulations believe that the Royals are really a 78-84 team, and presume that they will play like one the rest of the way. They also presume that the Tigers will play like a 97-win team. If thats the case, then its easy to see how they get those small odds.
The playoff odds from ESPN probably presume that every team will continue to play like their current record, which is why they give the Royals a better chance.
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That's a legit way to look at it, especially given the history of the two clubs.
That said, it doesn't matter. The games are all played inside the white lines - not a computer. Just keep winning and let the chips fall where they may. In the mean time, this is just fun as shit to be discussing these topics in August. I hope we have this same legit opportunity in September.