Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Their monte carlo simulations believe that the Royals are really a 78-84 team, and presume that they will play like one the rest of the way. They also presume that the Tigers will play like a 97-win team. If thats the case, then its easy to see how they get those small odds.
The playoff odds from ESPN probably presume that every team will continue to play like their current record, which is why they give the Royals a better chance.
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The Royals have played their py-thag hypothetical on the dot, 61-54. There is no luck here. They went 5-2 vs. Boston. They're also 5-3 vs Detroit already this year including 2-1 vs them before Detroit's 12 game streak. Royals as of today don't resemble a 78-84 team at all so I'm not sure what their analytics say. Do they take into account Frenchy and Getz being in there 2 months or do they factor the lineup as currently slated?