Thread: RB or QB?
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Old 08-26-2013, 09:55 PM   #7
lostcause lostcause is offline
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Because most leagues only start 1 qb and often 2-3 rbs.

Your stats are dead wrong by the way.

Here are the top 15 passers last year using 4 pts/6 pts scoring (listed is ppg):

Brees, Drew NOS QB 25.57
Brady, Tom NEP QB 24.957
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 24.62
Newton, Cam CAR QB 24.357
Ryan, Matt ATL QB 23.517
Manning, Peyton DEN QB 23.03
Griffin III, Robert WAS QB 24.45
Romo, Tony DAL QB 22.403
Luck, Andrew IND QB 22.037
Stafford, Matthew DET QB 21.717
Dalton, Andy CIN QB 20.21
Freeman, Josh TBB QB 19.73
Wilson, Russell SEA QB 19.633
Flacco, Joe BAL QB 19.29
Palmer, Carson OAK QB 19.233

As you can see brees outscored #15 palmer by 6 ppg. 11 qbs scored over 20 ppg. If you only start 1 qb and you can get stafford in the 6th, you're not losing that much to be able to pick up a rb instead.

Why a rb? Because if you start 2 and you wait, you're screwed:

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 21.22
Martin, Doug TBB RB 19.173
Foster, Arian HOU RB 19.08
Rice, Ray BAL RB 18.84
Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 17.347
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 17.245
Richardson, Trent CLE RB 16.98
Sproles, Darren NOS RB 16.175
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 16.013
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 15.853
Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 15.533
McGahee, Willis DEN RB 14.72
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 14.586
Forte, Matt CHI RB 14.5
Morris, Alfred WAS RB 14.433
Gore, Frank SFO RB 14.313
Johnson, Chris TEN RB 13.733
Leshoure, Mikel DET RB 13.731
Bush, Reggie MIA RB 13.593
McFadden, Darren OAK RB 13.509
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 12.667
Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 12.667
Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB 12.554
Jackson, Fred BUF RB 12.34
Jackson, Steven STL RB 12.24
Greene, Shonn NYJ RB 11.913
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB 11.853
Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 11.742
Turner, Michael ATL RB 11.353
Brown, Andre NYG RB 10.91

And the drop off gets real bad from there. You can always find a backup qb that will get you 14-18 points a game, they're all there in the late rounds. Last year if you went qb in the 1st and then came back even with rb/rb in 2&3 then you've gained about 4 points on average to most of the other qb1s in the league but given up probably 8-12 points to somebody that went rb/rb in the 1st and 2nd.

Additionally, if you eschew rbs further and end up with guys in the rb3 tier like Law Firm and Greene or worse - then you've given away all your advantage of taking a top qb.

This could be moot if you're drafting at the end of the 1st and 11 running backs are off the board. In that case you're much better off looking at Calvin, Julio or AJG (in ppr) or taking a look at Brees or Arod.
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