Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
1) Would Alex Gordon start for the Cardinals?
I think you'd have to find a place for him, but really - Holliday's not going anywhere. A) He just flat makes too much money. But really, it's more than that. He's a damn gutty player and I think he's a good 'complementary' leader. He's a guy that is a great 'leader by example'. I think you need vocal leaders as well, but Holliday's been a winning ballplayer his whole career and I do think the young players on this roster respect the hell out of him and how he approaches the game.
Gordon can't really play CF and Beltran can't either. In 2014 you'd have an easy answer - Beltran walks, Gordon plays RF and Taveras gets wedged into CF. In 2013, however, I'd rather have Beltran. You forget how nice it is to have a switch hitter in the center of your lineup until you have one. Apart from that, Beltran's just a timely HR machine. I like Gordon a lot and ultimately Beltran will have a streak where he's completely lost at some point this year, but Beltran's ability to switch hit combined with his HR pop gives him the edge, IMO. And while Gordon's not had a chance to prove it, I think it's extremely unlikely that he proves himself to be the post-season player that Beltran has shown to be.
But if you truly believe he's capable of playing 3b - there's your answer. I'd play him ahead of Freese all day, every day. He's simply a better player.
2) Wainwright and Shields.
Sorry, gonna have to agree with the other Cards fans here, but only because I think Wainwright was criminally underrated in 2009 and 2010. A Gold Glove winner, back to back top 3 finishes in the CY voting. 200+ Ks, leading the league in IPs while putting up an ERA+ of 155 and 160. That Adam Wainwright wasn't a tier below anyone. He didn't throw as hard as some of the guys you mentioned, but he was every bit as effective as Kershaw, Felix and essentially anyone else (Verlander's absurd year notwithstanding). No, Adam Wainwright was not a 2nd tier ace in 2009 or 2010 - he was as good as anyone there was.
This year he looks more like that Wainwright than the 2012 model. He's also a guy that's shown the stones to strike out one of the greatest post-season hitters in history in a Game 7 on the road with the winning run on base.
Ultimately, prior to this season, Shields has had only 1 truly great year. And yeah, 2011 was a remarkable season for him, but I don't think it was better than Wainwright's 2009 and it certainly wasn't better than his 2010. And if he's truly back to that form, and it looks like he might be, he's simply a little better pitcher than Shields with a better resume.
3) Billy Butler has a shot at 3000 hits.
Here's the problem, I once had this exact same discussion regarding Edgar Renteria. At the same age Billy Butler is now, Edgar had nearly 1,500 hits and had just come off the most productive 3 years of his career. He was a lynchpin hitter for a 105 win ballclub and looked for all the world like a guy that could reach 3,000.
He didn't even make it to 2,400.
The conversation doesn't matter. Sure, Butler could do it, but his odds are a hell of a lot worse than Edgar's were, IMO and Edgar didn't even approach it. 3,000 hit guys are made in their late 30s. Either they're guys like Craig Biggio that keep knocking out 170 hit seasons after their 35 birthdays or they're Edgar. In other words - it's just not a conversation worth having for another 7 years.
Look at it this way - Butler's 3 years ahead of David Ortiz, essentially. So even if you presume that those will be 3 good years, you're talking about adding another 550 or so hits to his total than Ortiz. David Ortiz has aged better than any bad body hitter I can remember and he hits in a perfect park for him - he's still not going to get to within 500 hits of 3,000.
I'd be shocked if Butler topped 2500, truth be told. But if he can get to 2400 by the time he's 35, he has a shot. That seems damn unlikely to me.
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