Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu
QB is the most important position. All else being equal, I agree that a team in need of a QB should take the QB. The problem is that your analysis seems to stop right there. All else is never equal. Clark Hunt would be foolish to hire a GM/coach who gave every draft prospect the same grade and then drafted based on importance of position.
Instead, you have to assess what you think a draft prospect will become. What's his ceiling? What's his floor? How likely is he to end up at either extreme? How will he fit in my system. Etc. Then you can factor in importance of the position, need, and so forth to align your draft board.
So your question (Which position is the overall offensive production more dependent on? LT or QB?) doesn't make any more sense than mine (hence the "so what?"). It's an interesting question to the extent that it explores one of many considerations that goes into making a draft pick, like mine does, but it doesn't really go far enough to give us any insight into what the Chiefs should actually do.
You may well think that Geno has a good chance of being a franchise QB, but if Reid thinks he's nothing more than journeyman material, it would explain a possible non-QB pick even though you, me, and probably Reid, agree that QB is the most important position.
|
I'm not sure what you mean when you say my analysis stops there. I'm not advocating that the Chiefs simply draft by importance of the position played. Not in the least.
Regarding what the draft prospect will become.... Well... that's the complete unknown in the equation. You cannot ever know for sure, no matter what the position. There will always be Tony Mandrich's and JaMarcus Russell's. Picking Luke Joeckel has the same bust potential as picking Geno Smith. You cannot prove otherwise. You seem convinced that QB is less safe than other positions with regards to future ability, but that's just not the case. The picks at tackle aren't any safer than the picks at QB. So why not take a risk on the one that's the more important position? If Geno looked questionable, and Joeckel looked ironclad it might be a different approach. But there's no definitive #1, so why wouldn't you choose to take the guy with the highest franchise improving potential?