Quote:
Originally Posted by Laz
you don't think that player 28 and 29 were drafted to teams around the super bowl level could be influencing things a little bit?
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At the same time, it should be harder for a rookie to crack the starting lineup on a strong playoff team. So while they're surrounded with better talent if they do start, the odds of them starting should logically be lower. I'm not sure if that's the case, but in theory it should be.
Nice analysis, cdcox. I've long had the theory that there's a discontinuity in the draft that can be exploited in theory. Since each draft is unique, you're going to have some drafts where the draft chart overvalues higher picks and others where it overvalues lower picks. A person who can figure out what type of draft it is could conceivably stack the deck in their favor by trading up or down even if they give up "draft points". If it's a bad draft at the top, you can accept fewer points than the chart shows and still come out ahead. Same with trading up.