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Originally Posted by shaneo69
Go back to 1990 for Super Bowl winning QB's. Unless they were 1st overall picks, they usually haven't been 1st rounders.
1990 - Hostetler - 3rd round
1991 - Rypien - 6th round
1992, 1993 - Aikman - 1st overall
1994 - Steve Young - 1st pick overall from USFL supp draft
1995 - Aikman - 1st overall
1996 - Favre - 2nd round
1997, 1998 - Elway - 1st overall
1999 - Warner - undrafted
2000 - Dilfer - 1st round
2001 - Brady - 6th round
2002 - Brad Johnson - 9th round
2003, 2004 - Brady - 6th round
2005 - Roethlisberger - 1st round
2006 - Manning - 1st overall
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Then look at the losing QB's since 1990:
1991 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1992 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1993 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1994 - Jim Kelly (1st round - HOF)
1995 - Stan Humphries (6th round - traded to SD)
1996 - Neil O'Donnell (3rd round)
1997 - Drew Bledsoe (1st overall)
1998 - Brett Favre (2nd round - traded for a 1st)
1999 - Chris Chandler (3rd round)
2000 - Steve McNair (1st round)
2001 - Kerry Collings (1st round)
2002 - Kurt Warner (undrafted)
2003 - Rich Gannon (9th round)
2004 - Jake Delhomme (undrafted)
2005 - Donovan McNabb (1st round)
2006 - Matt Hasellbeck (traded for a 1st round)
2007 - Rex Grossman (1st round)
So again, it looks like the best bet is to have a first round QB, just to get to the Super Bowl.