Thread: Elections 538
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Old 10-25-2012, 08:00 AM   #443
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538's latest article comments on intrade and their disagreement. I don't have any more free articles to give you more details.

The poll numbers were pretty flat going into yesterday. The small bump for Romney was explained pretty much by the drop in the stock market.

The latest numbers released last evening show the race trending back to Obama with a 71% chance of victory. Colorado is again trending blue (52.3%) as they do not give much credence to the latest Rasmussen poll. Virginia is more blue (52.9%) even though the most weight is given to a recent Wenzel Strategies poll that put Romney ahead.

The other close races:
Iowa (66.5% Obama)
New Hampshire (67.3% Obama)
Florida (67.6% Romney)
Ohio (73.4% Obama)
Nevada (75.9% Obama)

All other races are at least 80% towards one candidate. Obama is ahead in 9 of what are considered the 11 swing state races. Three of those races trend above 80% to Obama while only one is for Romney. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not, and have not been for some time, considered competitive.
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