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Overall, these predictions seem a little optimistic for the front-runners. This is always a problem early in the season, but is even more so this year because so far their have been relatively few games where a team of lower power rating beats a team of higher power rating. Tinlar pointed this out the other day in his power ratings. This leads my program to believe that the NFL is predictable with a high degree of accuracy and favors front-runners disproportionately. As we get a few more upsets, things will even out. Another way of handling this is to include uncertainty in the power ratings (Bayesian statistics), but that would require another revision of the program and a few hours of computer time to calculate.
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