Quote:
Originally Posted by The God Hypothesis
Some comments from that page:
Yes, if you ignore the fact that Shields and Wade Davis are gone after this year (Davis too expensive to keep under existing contract), and that Tampa still has 5+ years of cheap control of Odorizzi & Shields, AND Montgomery (pitching so well in AAA that he can’t be too far from a call up) & Leonard.
So imagine that Montgomery blows his arm out and never recovers & Leonard quits baseball to become a traveling musician. And Will Meyers only turns out to be an average player, and Odorizzi a mediocre back end starter, and the Rays only get 3 WAR a year between them. That’s akin to KC sending Tampa Bay a check for $15M every year for the next 5 seasons.
And if Myers becomes a star and Odorizzi an average starter, & Montgomery a back end starter or decent reliever, the check should be closer to $30M a year.
So yea, KC took every penny of the value they got from this trade, crammed it into 2013 & 2014, and still barely got more value than Tampa did in those years, and still missed the playoffs, and cost themselves a very large amount of value over the next 5 years to do it.
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It's nearly impossible to discuss this topic rationally with Royals fans, who say things like "we barely got more value these two years" when Frangraphs shows its been a rout, ~10-4 WAR. We've clearly gotten the better of the deal in the short run and we can debate the long run. But if you can't even recognize facts about the present, then it's all pointless.