Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
The raw dollars aspect is a compelling argument, but I'd bet that the difference in WAR between Tulo and Abreu and Rutledge, Adams, and Wacha might be enough to weight the trade in Colorado's favor. They could always target Kendrys Morales for $5-7 million instead.
Tulo and Morales would make $22-25 million and would likely give them somewhere between 6-12 WAR.
Rutledge, Adams, and Wacha would cost $1 million, but how many wins do you get from them?
Is Rutledge Tyler Greene? Is Adams' ceiling a 2-3 WAR 1B? You also have to figure in that the Cards will likely pay a premium because Tulo is the face of that franchise and b/c they need a SS so badly. Additionally, Tulo's contract stipulates that he can't be traded from the team acquiring him in a trade, so if his salary becomes onerous, dumping him becomes more complicated.
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There's significant risk involved for everyone. Hell, even assuming Tulo works out, what if Taveras doesn't? Right now, Adams is your long-term fallback for O-Tav, with Craig moving to RF. Adams will be a 30+ HR, .850ish OPS first baseman for quite some time, IMO. Even from a raw productivity standpoint, trading Adams is risky - the guys a hitter.
The Cards aren't made of money either. If the Rockies offered Tulo and his contract for Adams
alone it would be a spooky trade to make. For Adams and Wacha...boy you're running a risk there. But from my chair, it's a risk worth taking. A Cardinals team with Carpenter, Jay, Tulo, Craig, Holliday, Molina, Beltran/Taveras and Wong as a 1-8 is absolutely filthy.
If Beltran walks and you non-tender or trade Freese, you've cleared about $15 million in salary obligations and replaced them both with cost-controlled guys in Wong and O-Tav. In losing Wacha, perhaps you've really just made a home for Martinez, Gast or Lyons in the 5th spot.
It could backfire - but it could bring in a 3rd (and 4th) WS Championship over the last 10 years as well. That team could be incredibly good.