Thread: Chiefs How many times a game will Smith throw the ball a game under Reid?
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Old 03-02-2013, 10:57 PM   #14
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Nick Foles and Mike Vick threw the ball a combined 616 times.

That equates to 38.5

My guess is around 34-36 for a total around 550.

If they can do that while maintainting his ypa and his low turnover ratio, we can win a lot of games with Alex.
ypa = (air yards/comp + yac/comp) * comp%

Smith is low in (air yards/comp) and high in comp%. Crabtree is a good YAC receiver.

I think Reid will push for higher (air yards/comp), since that is his pattern in Philadelphia. It is reasonable to think Smith's completion percentage will drop, but how much? Downfield passes have more inherent risk. Will Smith pull the trigger or will he hold the ball too long looking for a sure thing or will he dump it?
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