Palmer, Flynn moves make sense, but they're not guaranteed fixes
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Carson Palmer could take over for a Cardinals team that saw four QBs start games last season.
Carson Palmer could take over for a Cardinals team that saw four QBs start games last season.
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
Two deals feel inevitable this morning: Carson Palmer to Arizona, Matt Flynn to Oakland. They make too much sense not to happen. Sense, yes. Whether they'll solve problems in quarterback-needy places ... that's another issue. Palmer has a much better chance when it comes to raising Arizona than Flynn has to save Oakland.
How I see the deals going down, and probably in this order -- assuming they happen, and I feel strongly they will:
Palmer to the Cardinals. It's likely Oakland gets a fourth- or fifth-round pick in return, and Palmer, 33, signs a deal commensurate with his recent performance but recognizing his chance for a revival playing for Bruce Arians and playing with Larry Fitzgerald. I understand why Palmer wouldn't take a financial haircut in Oakland: I wouldn't have either, knowing the Raiders were a short-term place and understanding if he held his ground, the Raiders might enable him to go to a place that fit him better.
A couple of things about this move that I like: Last year, I remember going to Indianapolis to write about the Colts when Arians was the interim coach. "I hate the West Coast Offense,'' Arians said. Arians wanted a big-armed quarterback stretching the defense, and it showed in Luck's numbers. In 2012, Luck had the second-longest average pass length in the league, 10.17 yards downfield. Match that with Palmer's desire to show he can be the big-armed thrower Arians needs. Believe me, Palmer chafes at the impression he doesn't have the arm he used to. In his first half-season with the Raiders, he was among the NFL's yards-per-attempt leaders, because coach Hue Jackson liked to stretch the defense.
Let's not be delusional about Palmer. You can't say he's a premier player anymore, but you also can't say he can't play. He threw for 4,018 yards, and his interception percentage (14 picks on 565 attempts, 2.5 percent) was lower than that of Drew Brees and Eli Manning. He wants to play the Arians way. I believe Arians is the best coach in the league for Palmer. I also believe Palmer wouild buy in totally to Arians' plan, and I hear he's excited about a chance in Arizona. A move would allow him to stay close to his southern California home, and to play in a system that wouldn't be a reach for his game. And Palmer would have the kind of reliable deep-threat receiver in Larry Fitzgerald that few quarterbacks have at their disposal.
Does that mean Arizona will contend? I doubt it sincerely. The leaky offensive line must be significantly better to give the immobile Palmer a chance to play well. But of all the quarterbacks on the market or in the 2013 draft, Palmer gives the Cardinals the best chance to be competitive as the fourth-best team in a suddenly very good NFC West.
Flynn to the Raiders. I think this deal gets done without Oakland GM Reggie McKenzie touching his 2013 draft, and that's good. The Raiders have only three picks in the top five rounds -- third, 66th and 100th overall. Then they have a 71-pick drought before choosing again, in the sixth round. I believe Oakland will pay a mid-round pick in 2014, then perhaps a conditional pick in 2015, based on Flynn's performance with the Raiders.
It's a smart move for Oakland, even if it's risky; Flynn has started only one game in the NFL. It was a colossal performance as he threw for a franchise-record six touchdowns against Detroit on the final Sunday of the 2011 regular season. It was against Detroit, granted. Awful secondary. And you can't overpay based on one game against a toasted secondary. But a mid-round pick and the prospect of a low-round conditional choice is not overpaying for Flynn, who McKenzie helped scout before the 2008 draft.
Put yourself in McKenzie's shoes. You can pay a quarterback you're not sold on, Palmer, $13 million this year, another year the cap is so tight it's squeezing every position group on the roster. Or you can pay Matt Flynn $5.25 million in salary, not knowing if he's going to be your quarterback of the future but knowing he's got a better chance than anyone on your current roster.
Put yourself in Seattle GM John Schneider's shoes. Do you want your confirmed backup quarterback taking up $7.25 million on your cap this year? Or do you trust your offensive coordinator and quarterback guru, Darrell Bevell, to train another guy to back up Russell Wilson? I'll take the latter choice any day of the week.
Finally, what are the chances Flynn becomes Oakland's answer at quarterback? Thirty percent, maybe? That's about 25 points higher than Palmer, with his salary, which the Raiders just weren't going to live with. I can't sit here and say the Raiders will get themselves a great player. I can sit here and say the Raiders are taking an intelligent calculated risk for the right price.
***
So what does this do to the draft?
Arizona with Palmer. Oakland with Flynn. And, on Friday, Buffalo with the signing of Kevin Kolb to a two-year contract. Teams with major quarterback needs are making moves.
I believe the Cardinals are now out of the first-round quarterback market. I think Oakland could still take one, with only three potential impact picks in this draft, but I think it's likely Oakland looks elsewhere at No. 3 overall. Buffalo? The Bills could do anything at No. 8, including taking a long-term prospect at quarterback like West Virginia's Geno Smith.
I talked to one personnel man Sunday (sorry for the Easter phone call) who presented this scenario to me: "I think what these deals do -- if they happen -- is impact the tackle market more than the quarterback market."
Smart thinking. His point: Arizona is desperate to shore up the offensive line; left tackle was a wasteland between D'Anthony Batiste and Nate Potter last year. Buffalo could use a bookend tackle to play opposite Cordy Glenn. Oakland has a lot of holes, and I doubt it would choose a tackle that high. But McKenzie is a value drafter, and if he loves Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson, the two top tackles after prospective top pick Luke Joeckel, he'll pick one.
The tackle market at the top of the first round is going to be on fire. I will be surprised if Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson aren't taken in the first 11 picks. San Diego is 11th.
Read More:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2PBFpmbRP