Ehhhh... AustinChief has more to stand on than you're giving him credit for. I do think it will be somewhat close given the extended time frame. He's right about cheap tablets flooding the market. That will happen. But like the netbook wave, it will take more than just cheap prices to gain that much market share. There will be a lot of crappy products released, just to try and beat the price point. But again, like netbooks, people should catch on. I just don't think it will be quite the shift he's betting on. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up with Apple in the mid 20% range by that time. But it will still be enough, I'm confident about that.
iPad2 will bring the share back up in a few months. I do think dual-OS development will play a big part in the debate, and that will be easier for developers as time goes on. But I'm betting some on Apple innovation as well. And I'm confident they'll continue their marketing brilliance..
Apple’s Tablet Market Share Drops to 73%: IDC Reports
by buzzintech on March 12, 2011
International Data Corporation (IDC), which tracks tablet share across the world,
reports that Apple’s share in Tablet market dropped to 73% in this quarter from 93% in the previous quarter. IDC said that in this quarter 10.1 million tablets were shipped in total compared 45 million last quarter, whiche is more than twice. Although there was a huge increase in the number of tablets shipped this quarter, the decrease in Apple’s tablet share is mainly due to Samsung Galaxy Tab. IDC said
Samsung’s Galaxy Tab was the primary competitor in the holiday season, beating other players to market and capturing more than 17% share, while a number of smaller regional players also participated.
As of 2010, about 18 million tablets have been shipped with Apple have 83% of the tablet share. IDC expects Apple to continue its dominance of tablet market with its second generation iPad 2, while the competitors are still struggling to come up with their first tablets.
Nearly 18 Million Media Tablets Shipped in 2010 with Apple Capturing 83% Share;