Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade
So, how about some actual realignment/expansion rumors. From what I've read, the next major domino to fall is the ACC negotiations. If the ACC does not get what some of the more football focused schools think they could earn elsewhere, the ACC will start to fall apart. The biggest tell will be the "grant-of-rights" similar to what the Big XII did.
If ACC members agree to it, the contract could be bigger, but how much bigger is the key. Even with that, they would still be less valuable than the big four conferences. Another point is 3rd Tier rights. To max out the TV contract, ESPN will want control of those as well. Some schools think they could earn more if they keep them.
If the two sides cannot agree on a number, it will go to arbitration. After all that, it will depend if the member schools actually sign over the "grant-of-rights". If not, the SEC, B!G and Big XII will begin cherry picking schools. SEC wants states outside of its footprint, B!G wants academic status and TV market share, Big XII wants "name" programs that increase the contract size.
For the Big XII, the rise of the NBC Sports Network (formerly VERSUS) will be the key player. NBC desperately wants back into the big time college football scene and ESPN desperately wants to keep them out. The Big XII 1st Tier right are the last major piece of college football property up for bid in the near future. This was part of the motivation for ESPN to try and grab those earlier. Whether you think of Big XII as one of the top conferences or not, they find themselves in a very good position for a major contract award.
Then, there's the Notre Dame issue. Once College Football decides on the format for 2014 and beyond, Notre Dame will have to decide if independence is still in their best interest. If it isn't, its going to come down to geographic/natural rivals in the B!G versus Tier 3 opportunities in the Big XII. I don't see them as courting the SEC and the PAC is too far away.
Assuming the ACC falls, my prediction right now goes like this:
SEC: Virginia Tech and North Carolina St. These two really consolidate the SEC geographically and add large population states to their market. UNC a possibility, but I think they'll stick with the football platform.
Notre Dame throws everything out of whack, so I'm going to assume independence for them for now.
B!G: Rutgers, Maryland, UNC, Virginia. Academics a big draw for the B!G and all three provide large TV market share opportunities. Also, not too outside the B!G footprint. Duke, a possibility if UNC makes a strong case for them. Also, Georgia Tech is another possibility here.
Big XII: FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Pitt. Makes it much easier to move to a "eastern" and "western" split (sorry ISU, you're odd man out to the east). Brings back "Backyard Brawl" and gives WVU a closer regional partner. I know Pitt just left, but if the ACC falls apart, I don't see them staying.
Now, if Notre Dame decides conference affiliation is what they want, then:
B!G: Notre Dame probably replaces one of the more southern schools. Not sure what the Catholic demographic is in those states, but I imagine its higher in the northeast where they would draw bigger numbers for the conference.
Big XII: My guess is that they drop Miami. Notre Dame, Pitt, ISU and WVU make a nice regional with Louisville joining FSU, Clemson, and GT. Texas quad and OK-KS quad.
The B!G and the PAC are talking about cross conference scheduling, and I think you'll see a similar arrangement between the SEC and Big XII, too many natural rivalries to exploit not to. That's my crystal ball.
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