Bernies column
Good morning, good afternoon...
Reasons why the Cardinals will win the NLCS:
1. Ghostbusters: This isn't 1996. The 25 members of the 2013 STL roster didn't blow a 3-1 NLCS
lead to Atlanta. A lathered up
Donovan Osborne won't be starting Game 6 or Game 7. Some of the Cards' young relievers were playing T ball when the Cardinals got upended by Atlanta in '96. And this isn't even 2012; in last year's NLCS when the Cardinals yacked up a 3-1
edge to the Giants, the final two games were played in San Francisco. They won't be left sitting on the dock of the bay, watching the NLCS roll away. This time around, the final game or two games will be staged at …
2. Busch Stadium: The Cardinals are 58-28 here this season. They haven't lost consecutive home games since early August. They're 25-6 at home since Aug. 11, and 17-3 since Sept. 6. And over the last 20 home games Cardinals' pitchers have a home ERA of 1.70. This is why it was so important to finish with the No 1 record in the National League and secure homefield advantage. Because in this case it really is an advantage.
3. Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright: Wacha in Game 6, and Wainwright takes over if there's a Game 7 is. You won't find any snark here about Dodgers' Game 6 starter
Clayton Kershaw, or their scheduled Game 7 starter
Hyun-Jin Ryu. Kershaw is the top starter in major-league baseball, and Ryu had an exceptional rookie season. (And Ryu owned the Cardinals in his two starts against them this season.) But it's not as if the Cardinals are countering Kershaw and (possibly) Ryu with
Omar Olivares and
Rick Ownbey, OK?
Wacha has a 2.25 ERA in seven home starts. In his last two starts at Busch, he's pitched 15.1 shutout innings, getting scratched for only six hits and striking out 17, with three walks. And if Wainwright's services are required for Game 7, the Cardinals can turn to their ace. Including postseason games Wainwright has 21 wins this season, more than any NL starter and second in the majors to Detroit's
Max Scherzer (23). Since correcting a flaw that tipped his curveball, Wainwright has a 5-0 record and a 1.25 ERA in six home starts, and the Cardinals have won all six.
4. The Kershaw-Cardinals thing is weird: The Cardinals have faced Kershaw three times this season … and they've won all three games. Is Kershaw's 0-3 record a valid representation of how he's pitched against the Cardinals? Of course not. The Cards scored six runs in 19 innings in the three starts. They batted .224 and struck out 18 times, with only three walks. They beat him back in May primarily because
Pete Kozma blooped a couple of big hits at timely moments. More than anything, Kershaw is 0-3 vs. St. Louis because his hitters scored only four runs during his 19 innings of work. But … even though it's wildly misleading, the fact is the Cardinals are 3-0 against the premier starting pitcher in baseball.
5. Hyun-Jin Ryu is more vulnerable on the road: Let me
start off by pointing out that Ryu made the Cardinals look like they were using a Class AA lineup when he controlled them at Busch Stadium in early August, pitching seven innings and giving up five hits and one unearned run. And don't get me wrong; he's a good road pitcher. But he hasn't been as effective on the road compared to home. At Dodger Stadium Ryu has a 2.44 ERA and a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.65. The Dodgers won 12 of his 17 home starts. On the road, Ryu has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.23 K/BB ratio. And the Dodgers went 9-6 in his 15 roadies. Ryu is very good. And he's a lefthander, which is another plus when going against St. Louis. But the Cardinals figure to have a better chance at him at Busch. When Ryu bedazzled the Cards in August, they were stumbling around in their worst stretch (4-13 record) of the season.
6. The Cardinals can beat quality lefthanded starters: In 2013 they're 3-0 against Kershaw, 2-0 vs. the underrated
Travis Wood, and had wins over
Madison Bumgarner,
Gio Gonzalez and NL All-Star
Jeff Locke. I'm not saying the Cardinals beat up on these guys, but they did win. I have no idea why Cardinals hitters have
allergic reactions to lefties, but it doesn't happen all of the time.
7. Because he's Carlos Beltran, dammit: Let's roll out the numbers again, and add a few others … 44
career postseason games … .327 batting average … .443 onbase percentage … .717 slugging percentage …. 16 homers … 12 doubles … 35 runs batted in … 7 go-ahead RBIs … 4 game-winning RBIs … .391 batting average with runners in scoring position … .385 average with RISP and two outs … a .409 average in close and late situations.
8. Matt Carpenter is returning to form: After a dreadful slump, the trigger of the St. Louis offense is causing trouble for pitchers again, with a .364 onbase percentage and .421 slugging percentage in the NLCS. In the last two games, Carpenter is 3 for 8 with a walk, a key RBI and two runs scored.
9. The rookie relievers: In this NLCS the Dodgers have scored one run in 10 combined innings against
Trevor Rosenthal,
Carlos Martinez, Seth Maness and
Kevin Siegrist. (And that run, charged to Siegrist, only scored because of a mental error by rookie 2B
Kolten Wong in Game 3.) Against the four fearsome freshmen the Dodgers are 6 for 31 with 10 strikeouts, have a .258 onbase percentage, and have grounded into three double plays. Just give them a lead to protect. They'll know what to do.
10. Because Yadier Molina won't hit into two double plays and strike out twice in the same game again. Yadi got his worst game out of the way in Game 5. We've seen him deliver important postseason hits before, most notably the game-winning HR in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
11. Because this is David Freese, and he's from St. Louis, and there's a Game 6 tonight at Busch Stadium. Freese has struggled this postseason, batting .152. But he's had two big moments so far: (a) the two-run homer off
Gerrit Cole that launched the Cardinals to a victory over the Pirates in the winner-take-all NLDS Game 5; (b) doubling off Kershaw and scoring the only run in the 1-0 victory in NLCS Game 2.
12. Because there is no way to explain Pete Kozma: Over the last two postseasons the Kozmic kid is 8 for 14 (.571) with runners in scoring position. He had the game-winning hit in 2012 NLDS Game 5 to complete the Cards' miracle comeback. He has nine RBIs over the last two postseasons — or six more than
Prince Fielder's RBI count over the last two postseasons. That's not all. Kozma's glove seems to have been personally coated with gold by
Ozzie Smith, and in his latest October surprise Kozma called for a risky but successful pickoff play at second base that nailed the Dodgers' stunned
Nick Punto in Game 4. Oh, yeah and he's 4 for 7 with three doubles against Kershaw. Do not try to figure this out. Just roll with it.
13. Because this isn't Dodger Stadium, and in the first two games at Busch Stadium
Adrian Gonzalez and
Yasiel Puig combined to go 1 for 15 with nine strikeouts.
14. Because manager Mike Matheny will be aggressive in going to his bullpen if needed. He will not hesitate and wait too long, as he did in Game 5. And he will not dare use
Edward Mujica in a close game unless it's like the 23rd inning and he has no choice. And if the skipper is down to his last out with a remote chance of coming back to win, he won't pinch-hit
Adron Chambers instead of
Shane Robinson. (Well, consider this a wish, or a request, more than an actual prediction.)
15. Matt Holliday: In his career at-bats against Kershaw and Ryu, Holliday is 12 for 41 (.292) with 10 walks, a double, and a homer.
16. Because if it comes down to Game 7, Jon Jay will get to, and catch, fly balls in support of Wainwright ... unlike Game 3.
17. The BFIB. This ain't no Disneyland, but when it comes to baseball, this is the happiest place on earth. (I wrote that one for the haters.)
18. There's something about Friday nights and STL postseason baseball.
So Taguchi's wining HR off
Billy Wagner in Game 2 of the 2006 NLCS came on a Friday night. So did the World Series clinchers in 2006 and 2011.
Chris Carpenter over
Roy Halladay, 1-0 in NLDS Game 5 at Philadelphia? Yep, that was a Friday-night fight. The Game 5 NLDS win at Washington, Friday night. And last Friday the Cardinals defeated the Dodgers in 13 innings in Game 1. Yes, the Cardinals lost Game 5 of the 2012 NLCS at home on a Friday night, but overall this random Friday night October success has shined on them.
19. Because the Cardinals have 47 postseason wins since 2004, which is 13 more than any American League team (the Yankees) and 20 more than any NL team (the Phillies) over that time.
20. Because it's Chuck Berry's 87th birthday weekend. As a tribute, Wacha and Wainwright will be motivatin' over the hill.
Thanks for reading …
— Bernie