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Old 07-03-2006, 10:46 PM   #14
tk13 tk13 is offline
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I'm not sure I want him to rush for 2000 yards unless he averages at least 6 yards a carry. Going for 2000 generally doesn't bold well for the long term productivity of a running back. I mean, obviously you aren't going to repeat that, but you look at guys like Terrell Davis and Jamal Lewis that did it, and they crashed hard after the 2000 yard season. Barry Sanders did it, but he was a different kind of RB, and averaged over 6 yards a carry.

Dickerson and OJ Simpson both faired better, although both of them took a dip the season after 2000. The season is probably longer and more physical now. Plus OJ averaged 6 yards a carry.

As great as he was, LJ only averaged 5.2 ypc.... he'd need exactly 384 carries at that pace to get 2000. That'd be the 13th most all time, which would put him in the company of a lot of guys who went downhill fast after a big-carry season... Jamal Anderson, T. Davis, Eddie George, Jamal Lewis, Barry Foster. Of course Eric Dickerson is up there about 3 times too, he handled it a lot better.

Hopefully Gretz' Dickerson comparison ends up being right on. They did average similiar yards per game... but LJ had a ton of carries. Even though he only started half the season, LJ ended up with about 30 less carries and over 350 yards less than Dickerson's record season. Not quite as similiar as the article makes it out to be.
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