Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
If he fails, that wont automatically mean we win the trade, because the argument would be that we could have sold him for more than what we got. But, it'd be easier to win the trade since keeping him would be off the table as a possible way to win.
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Payroll has to be factored in here. We didn't just trade players, we also traded contracts. Shields is making what appears to be $23.75m these two years (with a $0.75m trade bonus which I'd bet we picked up). Davis is making $7.6m. Then his options kick in so we'll worry about that later.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...s-city-royals/
So we're on the hook for $32m including our top two prospects. Fangraphs puts the value of 1 WAR = $4.6m. So we'll have to cross 6.95 WAR between them the next two years just to clear the salary hurdle (not counting the prospects in TB and their WARs).
From the looks of it, Shields might come close to hitting that WAR total by himself. This year. That's pretty crazy. I doubt he keeps up this pace but you never know. He should put up 10 WAR his time here. Davis maybe 2 WAR total. Then it's up to TBs prospects to out-do that.