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The lifetime ban is a threat to effectively ban him from the Hall of Fame. He doesn't have that many games in him anyway, but the HOF rules state that a banned player isn't eligible. So, this is MLB saying, "You're not even getting to a HOF vote unless you admit you took roids and go away."
You could say he wouldn't get in anyway, but there's a chance that once Bonds gets in (which he will eventually) the rest of the roid guys could get in, too. So he probably thinks he could still get in the HOF.
My belief anyway.
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