Kaepernick's floor is Alex's ceiling. You would have to be crazy to go with Alex rather than see how Kap develops over this year. He came out raw from a gimmick offense and has only started 32 games.
In his 3 year career, he has only had 1 training camp. There was no training camp in his rookie year. In his sophomore year, the focus was all on Developing Alex Smith. In his 3rd year, he was the undisputed starter and finally got a camp where he practiced exclusively with the 1st team.
Meanwhile, in those 3 years, what has he done?
Gone to the super bowl.
Gone to the NFCC game twice.
The first 49ers QB to win back-to-back road playoff games.
Holds the 49ers record for most road playoff wins in a season.
Holds the super bowl record for longest rushing TD for a QB.
Holds the NFL all time record for most rushing yards from scrimmage by an NFL QB, and a playoff game at that.
Longest run from scrimmage in a playoff game.
25 TDs to only 8 interceptions.
Engineered the biggest comeback win in the 48-year history of the NFC Championship game.
Kaepernick is the 5th most accurate deep passing QB in the NFL. That in itself is meaningless, but it shows his potential. It is easier to learn the short game than it is to grow a rocket for an arm.
http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart...nfl-1469917039
Yes, much of this comes from his legs because he is still developing as a pocket passer. In his first year starting, 2012, they babied him and had less on his shoulders as a pocket passer, letting him freelance more.
In 2013, they made him stay in the pocket and run less in the regular season. He struggled. I don't know if it was sophomore slump or lack of receiving weapons with Crabtree and Patton gone most of the year or what.
Without a doubt he is not a great passer, but the potential is there, from being able to fire a 60 yard pass accurately on a rope, to showing a willingness to throw into tiny windows.
His short game is poor and needs development. He is in love with the deep pass and is poor at taking the check down and hot read, sticking with the deep pass too long.
He has a LONG way to go to develop a great passing game. But the potential is there, because the intelligence, work ethic, drive and coaching are there. About the only thing I can question is how well he sees the field. Does he fail to see his 2nd and 3rd reads, or is he coached to stay with his 1st read? I don't know? I don't know how he is being coached as a young QB of 32 starts.
The elite potential is there. I will take a promising young QB with elite potential any day over a solid middle-tier veteran.
Forget Alex vs Kap.
What if this was, would you take Carson Palmer over Matthew Stafford. Palmer used to be a nearly elite QB himself when he was in his prime matched with Chad Johnson. He is still a savvy veteran who can win games with a good supporting cast. But Stafford has much more potential. He makes a lot of mistakes and takes foolish risks, which is probably more due to bad coaching than the man himself.
There is no planet on which I take a solid mid-level workman over a young QB with high potential just because he hasn't attained that potential in 32 starts.