Thread: Elections 538
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Old 08-31-2012, 07:55 PM   #9
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Just an update. After some minor movement toward Romney in recent weeks, the projection is not much different than it was on August 7. Obama has a 72% chance of winning, and averages 303.8 EC in the simulations.

Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.


Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.3%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 6.7%
Obama wins popular vote 71.6%
Romney wins popular vote 28.4%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.3%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.7%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 7.8%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.9%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 1.5%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 91.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 20.4%

Florida still pretty much a tossup with Obama having a 55% chance to take it. Virginia has moved to lean Obama with a 68% chance to take it. Obama leads in Ohio and Wisconsin are steady 69% and 75%. Missouri has moved into play but is still likely Romney.

Frankly without Ohio there is no way for Romney to win.
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