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Looking at the team efficiency ratings (percent chance of a team beating an average NFL team on a neutral field), there were several teams that went up around 8 percentage points and several that went down that much. Cincinatti was in the group that went up several points and KC was in the group that went down. So Cincinatti went from 4 percentage points better than the Chiefs to 21 percentage points better. That seems a big swing for one week this late in the season. I wonder of there are some instabilities in the model that contributed to that.
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