Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
How so? We won 72 games last year. Shields had a 2.2 WAR. That implies we are now what, 75 wins? Davis was a 1.0 WAR player. So now 76 wins. That's not even close to competitive. We are worse than Detroit at almost every position on the 25-man roster.
|
Well, if you look at pythag, we underperformed by a game and the Tigers overperformed by half a game. So a couple months ago the gap really stood at about 14.5 games. Thats still a yawning chasm.
Hosmer and Moose should both improve. Frenchy is probably not a -2.7 WAR player, if you normalize his luck he's probably a shade over replacement. That could be 5 or 6 wins. Then our pitching upgrades could add several more games. If we are on paper a few games worse than the Tigers, that is close enough to get lucky.
The trade was probably ill-advised because we just aren't close enough, but DM decided to rashly go all-in, so OK fine, here we are. We can optimistically hope to get lucky, but thats what it would take because if we play out 2013 1,000 times Detroit probably wins well over 500 of those seasons.
On the other side, to put a bit of a damper on it, Gordon has now hit over .350 babip 2 seasons in a row. It would be neat if he could do that a 3rd time, but probably not. Sal Perez and Escobar could both regress as well. We probably also need Butler to erupt, and exceed 2012.